{"id":22007,"date":"2021-09-08T10:08:07","date_gmt":"2021-09-08T10:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.icip.cat\/opinion\/negociar-la-pau\/"},"modified":"2021-09-08T11:04:41","modified_gmt":"2021-09-08T11:04:41","slug":"negotiating-peace","status":"publish","type":"icip_opinion","link":"https:\/\/www.icip.cat\/en\/opinion\/negotiating-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Negotiating peace"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Taliban have won the war.\u00a0 And now what? \u00a0Now it is time to negotiate.\u00a0 This is certainly a complex task, fraught with moral and strategic dilemmas.\u00a0 It is easier to start a war than to end it.\u00a0 But right now, there are few alternatives available for one side or the other: multiple negotiations at multiple levels are needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jonathan Powell, who was Tony Blair\u2019s Chief of Staff and a key player in the negotiations with the IRA, describes very well the dilemmas of governments concerning conflict negotiation in the book <em>Talking to Terrorists: How to End Armed Conflicts<\/em>, which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.icip.cat\/ca\/publication\/dialogar-con-terroristas-jonathan-powell\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ICIP has just translated into Spanish<\/a>.\u00a0 The book describes negotiation experiences in a dozen armed conflicts around the world.\u00a0 Powell is a strong advocate of dialogue, even with the most extremist groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, the international community is faced with supporting the new regime \u2013 as it did during the first Taliban government (1996-2001) \u2013 or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/afghanistan-is-it-right-to-talk-to-the-taliban\/a-58893633\">maintaining some dialogue<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/2021\/08\/18\/afghanistan-under-taliban-pub-85168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">to influence its decisions<\/a>.\u00a0 The motivations for maintaining channels of communication may be geopolitical interests (to maintain influence on the Central Asian chessboard), humanitarian commitment to people who want to flee and, above all, to those who will not be able to leave, and less lofty interests such as preventing the flow of refugees.\u00a0 The United Nations, in particular, is risking its prestige if it is not able to find a way to lead and play a role in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/news\/2021\/08\/afghanistan-shameful-failure-of-unhrc-special-session-to-address-escalating-human-rights-and-humanitarian-crisis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">guaranteeing human rights<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldpoliticsreview.com\/articles\/29904\/to-stave-off-renewed-war-afghanistan-could-use-a-u-n-peacekeeping-mission\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">maintaining peace<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, the Taliban also face multiple <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cidob.org\/publicaciones\/serie_de_publicacion\/opinion_cidob\/2021\/taliban_dilemmas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">negotiation dilemmas<\/a>.\u00a0 First of all, they will need to resolve internal power disputes.\u00a0 The Taliban are not a monolithic organization but rather a federation.\u00a0 There are more moderate and more radical factions within the organization, and they will have to reconcile their differences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, they will also have to decide whether to share power with other political groups in the country and establish some transitional government.\u00a0 Otherwise, an armed opposition could organize with the risk of starting another civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thirdly, the new government will need to establish diplomatic relations and <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.prio.org\/2021\/08\/is-diplomacy-failing-when-it-is-needed-most\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">guarantee a minimum of international support<\/a> (financial, technical and humanitarian) to get the public administration of a country in ruins back on track.\u00a0 The last time they governed, their government had only been recognized by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.\u00a0 Now they know that this is not enough.\u00a0 They have also learned that if they want to collaborate with other regional powers such as Russia and especially China, they will have to negotiate, compromise and demonstrate their commitment and ability to honour agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, the most important negotiations: between the government and its own population.\u00a0 We are not referring to direct negotiations, but the new government will have to find a way to manage criticism.\u00a0 Let\u2019s not fool ourselves: as with an authoritarian regime, repression will probably be the preferred option.\u00a0\u00a0 But there is a price to pay for repression, which the Taliban will have to consider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, no one in Afghanistan today has much interest in dialogue and negotiation, but they seem to be inevitable factors.\u00a0 At the end of the day, the question is not whether or not to negotiate but to know how to find the moment and agree on the methodology and the agenda of the negotiation\u2026 aspects that are certainly not easy.\u00a0 In 2001, the Americans had the option of negotiating the surrender of the Taliban.\u00a0 They had the upper hand but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/08\/23\/world\/middleeast\/afghanistan-taliban-deal-united-states.html?searchResultPosition=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">refused to do so out<\/a> of arrogance.\u00a0 Twenty years later, with a humanitarian tragedy on their shoulders, they wound up negotiating <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/world\/middle-east\/afghanistan-unravelled-twenty-years-building-a-civilised-society-ends-in-the-return-of-these-brutes-1.4651788?mode=amp&amp;__twitter_impression=true\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a very questionable agreement<\/a> with their enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Kristian Herbolzheimer, Director of ICIP<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":19227,"template":"","class_list":["post-22007","icip_opinion","type-icip_opinion","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Negotiating peace - ICIP<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Taliban have won the war. 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